How prediction markets work

Prediction markets let you trade on whether something will happen: an election, a game, a Fed decision, or where Bitcoin closes today.

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Prices are probabilities

Every market asks a question with outcomes, usually Yes and No. Each share trades between $0 and $1, and the price reads as the market’s probability. A Yes share at 62¢ means the market puts the outcome at about 62%. When the event resolves:

• Shares of the winning outcome pay out $1 each.
• Shares of the losing outcome pay out $0.

$$\text{Profit} = (\$1 - \text{price paid}) \times \text{shares}$$ Example: You buy 100 Yes shares at 40¢ for $40. If the outcome happens, you receive $100, a profit of $60. If it doesn’t, you lose your $40. You don’t have to wait for the result. You can Cash Out at the current price at any time to lock in a gain or cut a loss.

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No leverage, no liquidation

Prediction shares are bought in full, so there’s no multiplier, no margin, and no liquidation. The most you can lose is what you paid.

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What you can trade

Markets are grouped into categories: Crypto, Stocks, Indices, Commodities, FX, Sports, Economics, Politics, and Other. Up Down markets are short rolling markets, such as whether an asset is higher or lower in 15 minutes.

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Balance and fees

Prediction trades use your Liquid balance, the same USDC you trade perps with. See Move funds if your account isn’t unified. The minimum trade is $10. Liquid charges a 0.90% fee on both buys and sells (0.81% if you joined with a referral code), paid in USDC. See Fees. Ready to trade? See Trade prediction markets.